Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis for the north Tabriz fault

Abstract. The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the newest methods estimating amount in surface rupture areas. Considering strike-slip mechanism north Tabriz fault, Iran, using earthquake method and historical earthquakes 1721 1780, has been investigated, different scenarios estimated. fault's 50–60 km long section was selected as source possible from its data. Two were considered according to displacements, return periods, magnitudes paleoseismic studies fault. For both scenarios, displacements for exceedance rate 5 % 50, 475, 2475 years principle (on fault) have